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LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM (23th March 2009) – Commercially available satellite imagery provided to Jane's Intelligence Review on 16th March appeared to confirm North Korea was preparing to launch a space-launch vehicle (SLV) at its Musudan-ni launch site.
IHS Jane’s Intelligence Review editor Christian Le Mière explained, “The imagery, captured by DigitalGlobe's Quickbird satellite on 16th March, contrasted with imagery seen by Jane's in February and early March. Comparing the most recent DigitalGlobe image with one taken on 11th March, it is evident that the upper stage of the umbilical tower is open and possible delineations to aide emplacement have been placed on the pad to centre each stage of the SLV as it is constructed.”
This is not the first time the upper stage of the umbilical tower has been seen open: a 26th February image from GeoEye also showed a split hatch. The key difference in the 16th March image is that a crane is visible at the site and has also been swung around and is now over the launch pad. This suggests preparations are well underway for the SLV to be placed on the pad in stages.
The imagery appears to confirm that North Korea is preparing to launch a SLV, dubbed the Unha 2 by Pyongyang, in coming weeks to place the Kwangmyongsong 2 communications satellite in orbit. North Korea suggested on 12th March that the launch would take place between 4 and 8 April 2009.
The Unha 2 is similar to the Taepodong 2 intercontinental ballistic missile being developed by North Korea.
A successful launch of the Unha 2 could prove politically beneficial for Pyongyang by stoking national pride following elections to the 12th Supreme People's Assembly on 8th March. The 12th Supreme People’s Assembly will sit for its first session on 9 April, immediately after the SLV launch.
However, it is also likely to lead to international sanctions and opprobrium. South Korea and Japan confirmed, on 19th March, that they are considering sanctions after the launch.
Le Mière concluded, “Although after the SLV launch North Korea may ostensibly engage with the six-party process, it will likely simultaneously attempt to open bilateral negotiations with the United States and continue missile and nuclear device development to reach their ultimate goal of a deliverable nuclear warhead.”
